Updated November 2026
A bluff makes money when your bet divided by the bet plus the pot is less than how often he folds. Bet half the pot and he has to fold 1 time in 3. Bet the full pot and he has to fold half the time.
The math is the easy part. The hard part is choosing who to bluff, on which cards, with which hand, and when to give up.
Take the amount you risk and divide it by the amount you risk plus what's already in the pot. That's the share of the time he has to fold for a pure bluff to break even.
Bet $50 into $100 and you need him to fold 50 / 150, which is 1 time in 3. Each extra dollar costs you, but it also makes his call harder.
He has to fold one time in three.
Hands that can win without betting make bad bluffs. Third pair might be good if you check, and betting it turns a hand that could win into a hand that only gets called by better.
Because you can win two ways: he folds, or you hit. A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand that's behind now but has a draw.
Say the pot is $100 and you bet $50 on the flop with a flush draw. You need him to fold 33% of the time if you could never win. With a draw you win more than a third of the time he calls, so he needs to fold far less for the bet to make money.
That simple sum assumes he calls and the money stops there, with you seeing both cards. Real hands have more betting to come.
Your bets have to tell the same story as a real hand. If you called before the flop and checked the flop, a huge bet on the river when an ace comes looks odd unless you'd really play an ace that way.
You raise to $6 and the big blind calls.
He checks. You have a flush draw and you bet $6 into $13. He calls.
He checks. You bet $12 and he calls again. The draw misses.
He checks. Queen-high can't win, so a bet is the only way. You bet $33, two-thirds of the pot, and tell the same story you've told since the flop: an ace. He needs to fold 40% of the time.
You take the $49 pot, which is $25 more than you put in.
Heads-up at the 2003 World Series of Poker main event, amateur Chris Moneymaker faced Sammy Farha, a professional. Moneymaker's bluff became known as the bluff of the century.
Moneymaker raises to 100,000 and Farha calls with queen-nine.
Both check. Farha has a pair of nines, and Moneymaker has king-high.
Farha bets 300,000. Moneymaker raises to 800,000 with no pair and a straight or flush card still needed, and Farha calls.
Farha checks. Moneymaker goes all-in with king-high. After a long think, Farha folds the best hand.
You can see why it worked. The turn raise and the river shove told one story, a strong hand, and Farha's pair of nines could only beat a bluff. It also took real courage: if Farha had called, Moneymaker's tournament was over. His win helped set off a boom in poker, because he'd qualified through an online satellite.
Against strong players, the right share of bluffs depends on your bet size. A half-pot bet on the river should be a bluff about 1 time in 4, and a pot-size bet about 1 time in 3.
Against weak players, forget balance. Bluff less against those who call and more against those who fold. GTO explains the balanced numbers.
A hand that can only beat a bluff is called a bluff-catcher. Whether to call comes down to the price. If he bets the pot, you need to be right 1 time in 3.
So ask whether this player bluffs that often here. If he's never shown a bluff, fold. If he can't stop firing, call and find out.
Twelve spots in three rounds: how often it has to work, who to bluff, and whether the bluff makes sense.
Rarely, and only against someone who has shown they can fold. Beginner games pay most for strong hands bet well.
A bet on the flop by the player who raised before it, whether it hit or not. Many of them are bluffs.
A small bluff is cheaper and needs fewer folds, but it also gets called more. A big one needs more folds and gets them more easily. Choose the size that the hand you're pretending to have would use.
Yes, and betting patterns are what give you away, since nobody can see your face.
A bluff can only win if he folds. A semi-bluff can also win by hitting its draw.
A pure bluff breaks even when he folds bet / (bet + pot) of the time. The balanced bluff share is bet / (pot + 2 × bet) for the river. The semi-bluff example treats the call as the end of the betting, and adds up what each outcome is worth.
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