Updated November 2026
Bet top pair on the flop and usually again on the turn, about two-thirds of the pot when draws are around and half when they aren't. Let it go when a quiet player raises, or when the turn and river bring the cards your opponent was waiting for.
Top pair means you've paired the highest card on the board. An unpaired starting hand flops it about 1 time in 10, and ace-king does it 29 times in 100, so it's one of the good hands you'll hold most often.
| What happened | What you do |
|---|---|
| Flop with draws around | Bet two-thirds of the pot |
| Flop with no draws | Bet half the pot |
| Weak kicker | Bet smaller, fold to a raise |
| Called on the flop | Bet the turn unless the board got worse |
| A quiet player raises | Fold |
| Big river bet | Count the price, then ask if they bluff |
It depends on how high your cards are, because the highest card on the board has to be one of yours. Ace-king flops top pair 29 times in 100. King-queen does it 24 times and ten-nine only 12.
Averaged over every unpaired starting hand, it's 10.3%. Ace-king flops it so often because a pair of aces is always top pair, and a pair of kings is top pair whenever no ace comes with it.
It's ahead a lot of the time, and it loses that lead quickly as players join. The chart takes king-queen on a flop of king-seven-two, in three suits, against random hands.
Against random hands: how often you're ahead now, and how often you win by the river
Random hands are the friendly case, because players who call a raise have better than random cards. Treat these numbers as the most top pair can be.
Your bet sets the price for every draw at the table. A flush draw hits on the next card 19.1% of the time, so a bet that asks for more than that makes it pay too much.
Bet two-thirds of the pot when the board has draws. The caller needs 29% and only has 19.1%. Bet half the pot on boards with no draws, because the only hands calling are the ones you want calling.
A lot, because when you both have the same pair the side card decides who wins everything. King-queen against ace-king on a king-high flop wins 13 times in 100. King-ten against king-queen wins 14. Pick a kicker and count the hands that beat you on an ace-high flop.
Ace-king has 13 hands beating it and ace-three has 85. That's why you bet the big kickers hard and the small ones carefully. More on this in what a kicker is.
Top pair is one pair. These are the moments when it stops being enough.
A $1/$2 game, with the pot shown after each round of betting. You bet twice, the worst card comes, and you stop.
Everyone folds to you and you raise to $6. The small blind folds its $1 and the big blind calls.
They check. You have top pair and no draws are out, so you bet $8. They call.
They check. You bet $18 and they call again.
The ace lands and they lead out for $50, the first bet they've made. You'd pay $50 to win $115, so you need to win 50 / 165, or 30% of the time.
A player who called twice and now bets big on the ace usually has it. You lose the $32 you put in: $6, $8 and $18.
Twelve spots in three rounds: whether to bet, how much, and when to let go.
Yes. Against one random hand on a board with no draws you're ahead 96 times in 100. It gets a lot worse against more players and against anyone who's raising.
When an opponent bets and you think worse hands will call, yes. Raising with a weak kicker usually only gets called by better hands.
Yes, on the river when no worse hand can call, and sometimes on the turn when the card that came is bad for you.
Usually smaller and less often. Second pair is beaten by anyone holding the top card, and players like calling with that card.
Top pair with the best kicker still possible. On a king-high flop, ace-king is top pair, top kicker. On an ace-high flop, it's ace-king again.
Flop chances count all 19,600 flops for each hand. The king-queen chart is 3 million random deals at each table size, with ties shared. Head-to-head numbers count every possible river and turn. A caller needs bet / (pot + 2 × bet) to break even.
The kicker tool counts two-card hands that hold an ace on a flop of ace-seven-two when you hold the ace of spades. Two aces are left, so there are 91 such hands: 1 is the last two aces and 90 pair one of those aces with one of the other 45 unseen cards.
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