What is the bubble in a poker tournament?
Updated November 2026
The bubble is the point in a tournament just before the prizes start: one more player out and everyone left gets paid. Chips are worth less than their face value there, so you need much more than a 50% chance to call an all-in.
The player who finishes one place short has "burst the bubble" and gets nothing.
| What | One place short of the money |
|---|---|
| Why it's different | Busting pays nothing |
| Short stack | Waits for a real hand |
| Big stack | Puts on the pressure |
4 left, 3 paid, even stacks
Why is 50% not enough?
Because winning doubles your chips and doesn't double your money. Four players have 2,500 chips each, and three get paid: $500, $300 and $200. Each stack is worth $250.
Call an all-in and win, and you have 5,000 chips worth $383.33. That's $133.33 more. Lose, and you've lost the whole $250. So you need to win 250 divided by 383.33, which is 65.2% of the time.
Win or lose
What should you do with each stack?
- Big stackRaise a lot. Others are scared of going out, and you can afford a loss. This is where big stacks grow.
- Medium stackBe the most careful. You have the most to lose, so avoid all-ins against bigger stacks.
- Short stackYou can't just wait, since the blinds keep coming. Pick a good spot, and if someone else is shorter, you can wait for them to go first.
When should you still go all-in?
When your stack is nearly gone. If you can't cover the next round of blinds, your chips are worth so little that you need to take a chance. A push/fold chart gives you the starting point, and you should tighten it on the bubble.
Pressure works on
What is hand-for-hand play?
In large tournaments, tables play one hand at a time as the bubble approaches, so that nobody can stall to wait for someone else to go out. Every table finishes its hand before the next one starts.
Where does this come from?
The calculation is called ICM, the Independent Chip Model. It turns chip stacks into prize money. Our page on ICM has a calculator for your own stacks.
Would you call on the bubble?
Twelve spots in three rounds.
Questions players ask
Why is it called the bubble?
Players talk about it bursting when the last unpaid player goes out.
Does the bubble exist in cash games?
No. Chips in a cash game are worth exactly what they say.
Should I just fold until I'm in the money?
Usually not. Most of the prize money is at the top, so a big stack coming out of the bubble is worth far more than the smallest prize.
How the numbers on this page were worked out
The standard Independent Chip Model: your chance of first place is your share of the chips, and each later place is worked out the same way with the remaining stacks.
Know someone who calls off on the bubble?
Send them the math.