Updated November 2026
Outs are the cards left in the deck that turn your hand into the winner. Count them, multiply by 2 with one card to come or by 4 with two, and you have your chance of hitting.
Pick a draw below. Every gold card is an out, and the deck shows you exactly where they are.
A card is only an out if it makes you the winner. A card that improves your hand but leaves you behind doesn't count, however good it looks.
So you need a rough idea of what he has before you count. Against a pair of kings, the flush cards are outs. Against a player who already has a flush, they aren't.
Count each card once. The classic error is a hand with two draws, where one card is doing both jobs.
Say you have a flush draw in spades and you need a 10 for a straight. There are 9 spades left and 4 tens, but one of the tens is a spade, and you already counted it.
You'll count these four so often that they should become automatic.
Two separate gaps, as with 9-7 on a board of J-8-5. A 10 fills one gap and a 6 fills the other, and it's as good as an open-ended draw.
A flush draw and an open-ended straight draw together. With 15 outs you can be the favorite against a single pair.
Both your cards are higher than the board. Three of each rank are left, and some of them may not be good.
Only two cards in the deck make your three of a kind. This is the weakest draw you'll be tempted to chase.
This is the outs chart. It goes down to the last decimal because we worked it out from the deck itself.
Chance of hitting with one card to come, then with two
Chance of hitting with one card to come, and with two
The number of unseen cards is what makes it work. With one card to come you can't see 46 cards (52 minus your 2 and the 4 on the board), so 9 outs hit 9 times in 46.
If you get to see both cards
Very good when you have few outs. With one card to come, multiply your outs by 2; with two cards to come, multiply by 4.
The solid and dashed lines sit almost on top of each other until around 8 outs. After that the ×4 rule pulls away and starts telling you you're better off than you are.
Shortcut minus the exact number, in percentage points
Up to 9 outs, trust the shortcut. Over 12, take a few points off.
The ×4 rule also assumes you get to see both cards. If he can still bet on the turn, use the one-card number. The pot odds guide works through what that mistake costs.
A backdoor draw needs both the turn and the river. With three hearts after the flop you need the next two cards to be hearts: 10 of 47, then 9 of 46, which comes to 4.16%.
Count a backdoor flush draw as about one extra out.
A dirty out makes your hand and still loses. The usual culprits are flush cards when he has a bigger flush draw, and any out that pairs the board and gives someone a full house.
When you can't tell, take a few off your count. Counting 9 outs when 2 of them are dirty is how a good-looking call turns into a slow leak.
You rarely do, so count your clean outs first and then take some off for the hands that can beat you. With two overcards against an unknown bettor, 6 outs is the most you can have. Three or four is often closer to the truth.
Suited cards give you a flush draw on the flop about 1 time in 9. A made flush comes less than 1 time in 100, so suited hands make money mostly by drawing.
Outs work before the flop too, and the common matchups are worth knowing. These are exact, counted across every possible board.
Win, tie and lose across all 1,712,304 boards
The one to remember is a small pair against two higher cards. Players call it a race because it's close to even, and the pair is a slight favorite.
The dangerous one is being dominated: ace-king against ace-queen shares a card, so the worse hand wins only about 1 time in 4.
Compare your chance with the price. Say you have an open-ended straight draw on the turn, with 8 outs, and that's the last bet of the hand.
The full method, with chips and a calculator, is in the pot odds guide.
He bets $6. You have 9 outs to the best possible flush. One card away that's 19.1%, and his bet needs 25%, so the price alone says fold. But he has about $190 behind and you'll get paid when you hit, so you call.
He bets $18, which needs 30%, and you have 19.6%.
He has enough chips left to pay you that, and if he's the type to call a river bet, this is a call. Against a player who folds whenever the third heart comes, it's a fold. Same cards, and the answer comes down to who's across the table.
Yes. The more players there are, the more likely it is that one of them holds what you're drawing to. A flush draw stays strong because it beats nearly everything when it hits. Outs that only make a pair get much worse.
Don't count a card that gives you a straight when it also puts four to a flush on the board and he's been betting like he has one. Don't count a low card that makes you a small pair against someone who's shown strength. Those cards help you and help him more.
The ten gives you a straight and puts a fourth spade out there.
Twelve spots in three rounds, with real cards.
Nine. There are 13 cards in a suit, and you can see 4 of them.
Four, one of each suit of the card you need.
Six: three of each rank. They're often dirty, because the card that pairs you can also improve him.
Eight or more is a strong draw. Under four usually needs a very good price or a lot of money still to win.
Not in the same way, because five cards are still to come. Use the matchup chart above.
You can't see them, so no. Use 46 or 47 unseen cards every time.
With one card to come the chance is outs / 46. With two cards to come from the flop it's 1 − (47 − outs) / 47 × (46 − outs) / 46. The outs on the gold deck were counted by dealing every remaining card and checking who wins.
Send them this page, or keep the cheat sheet for your next session.