Pokeriad / Learn / Royal flush odds
What are the odds of a royal flush?
Updated November 2026
The odds of a royal flush are 1 in 649,740 with five cards dealt, and 1 in 30,940 in Texas Hold'em if you stay in until the river. Omaha is kinder at 1 in 10,829, because you hold four cards.
Those numbers are exact, and they mean most players will go a very long time between them.
| Game | One royal flush every |
|---|---|
| Five cards dealt | 649,740 hands |
| Hold'em, or seven-card stud | 30,940 hands |
| Omaha | 10,829 hands |
| Short deck Hold'em | 4,488 hands |
Why do the odds change so much between games?
More cards, more chances. Seven cards can be combined into 21 different five-card hands, so your chance rises by about 21 times.
Omaha deals you four cards and five on the board. You have to use exactly two from your hand, and that still works out about three times easier than Hold'em. Short deck takes out the twos through fives, leaving 36 cards, so the royal cards are a bigger share of the deck.
One royal flush every
How long should you expect to wait?
At 30 hands an hour, seeing every river, the average wait is about 1,031 hours. Online at 75 hands an hour it's 413. Put in your own numbers below. In a real game you fold most hands before the river, so treat the answer as the shortest it could be.
What are the chances you've had one by now?
An average of one every 30,940 hands doesn't mean you'll get one by then. After 30,940 hands, you've had at least one 63 times in 100, and 37 times in 100 you're still waiting.
Hold'em, every river seen
What if you're holding the right cards?
Start with two suited cards from ten through ace, and the three you need arrive on the flop 1 time in 19,600. By the river it's 1 time in 1,960.
Flop four to a royal and only one card helps. With two cards to come, you get it 4.26 times in 100, and with one card to come 2.17 times in 100.
Holding ace-king suited
Is it worth chasing one?
No. Those hands make money from pairs, flushes and straights, and the royal is a bonus you can't plan for. If you have four to a royal and the price is wrong for the flush or straight you'd also make, fold. Our page on pot odds shows how to check the price.
Do you know the odds?
Twelve spots in three rounds.
Questions players ask
What are the odds of two royal flushes in a row?
In Hold'em, if you see every river, 30,940 times 30,940. That's about 1 in 957 million.
Why is the seven-card number the same for Hold'em and stud?
Both use your best five of seven cards, and the count of seven-card deals doesn't care which ones are shared.
Are the odds different online?
No. A fair deal has the same odds on any table. You may see more of them online because you play many more hands.
How the numbers on this page were worked out
Exact counts of all possible deals. Seven-card totals match Wikipedia's poker probability page. For Omaha we counted 4 suits, times 10 ways to choose your two royal cards, times the other cards in your hand and on the board, out of every possible deal of four hole cards and five board cards.
Know someone who's sure they're due one?
Send them the math.